事件描述

有限大(da)公司发布消息2023 年(nian)年(nian)度(du)目标计划(hua)书(shu)单(dan)及(ji)2024 年(nian)一(yi)(yi)是月(yue)度(du)计划(hua)书(shu)单(dan)：2023 年(nian)有限大(da)公司进行开业总薪资301.20 多(duo)亿(yi)(yi)(yi)，环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)转变(bian) -15.29%；进行归(gui)母(mu)纯收(shou)(shou)入(ru)率22.66 多(duo)亿(yi)(yi)(yi)，环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)转变(bian) +18.67%；扣非(fei)(fei)后归(gui)母(mu)纯收(shou)(shou)入(ru)率23.59 多(duo)亿(yi)(yi)(yi)，环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)转变(bian) +41.73%；大(da)致每一(yi)(yi)股回报0.102 元/股，环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)转变(bian) +18.74%；权重计算大(da)概(gai)资金(jin)回报比(bi)(bi)率5.0124%，环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)加入(ru)0.6 个(ge)月(yue)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)；营运活动(dong)方案产生(sheng)的现今流净额70.25 多(duo)亿(yi)(yi)(yi)，环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)转变(bian) +9.03%。2024Q1 进行营业收(shou)(shou)入(ru)的73.21 多(duo)亿(yi)(yi)(yi)，环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)+3.58%；进行归(gui)母(mu)纯收(shou)(shou)入(ru)率4.67多(duo)亿(yi)(yi)(yi)，环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)转变(bian) +11.41%；扣非(fei)(fei)后归(gui)母(mu)纯收(shou)(shou)入(ru)率4.71 多(duo)亿(yi)(yi)(yi)，环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)转变(bian) +12.04%。

事件点评

煤炭产销同增，吨煤售价下行。受银宇煤矿和福巨源煤矿合计120 万吨焦煤产能复产影响，公司煤炭产销量增长，2023 年合计原煤产量1297.23 万吨，同比+17.58%；销量1299.37 万吨，同比+17.98%。折合吨煤售价872.46元/吨，同比-27.73%；吨煤成本390.43 元/吨，同比-13.61%；吨煤毛利482.03元/吨，同比-36.17%。产销增长部分抵消煤价下行影响，2023 年煤炭业务收入113.37 亿元，同比-14.73%；煤炭业务成本50.73 亿元，同比+1.92%；煤炭毛利62.63 亿元，同比-24.70%；毛利率55.25%，同比减少7.31 个百分点。

燃料成本下降，电力毛利率大幅提升。公司2023 年实现发电量373.49亿千瓦时，同比+4.16%；上网电量353.91 亿千瓦时，同比+4.10%；平均综合售电电价0.4722 元/千瓦时，同比+2.09%；平均度电成本0.4217 元/千瓦时，同比-14.68%；电力业务收入167.11 亿元，同比+6.28%；成本149.26 亿元，同比-11.18%；毛利17.85 亿元，整体销售毛利率10.68%，同比大幅扭亏，增加17.56 个百分点。

2024Q1 提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)，煤(mei)炭使用量(liang)量(liang)减价(jia)(jia)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)；电(dian)(dian)气设备量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)价(jia)(jia)减。2024Q1 平台精煤(mei)生(sheng)时产(chan)239.52 千吨(dun)(dun)，提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)月提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)+0.49%，提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)-30.21%；商品(pin)销售(shou)能力237.42 千吨(dun)(dun)，提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)月提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)-1.79%，其(qi)中的(de)洗精煤(mei)生(sheng)时产(chan)67.44 千吨(dun)(dun)，提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)月提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)+8.63%，提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)-16.88%；商品(pin)销售(shou)能力61.78 千吨(dun)(dun)，提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)月提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)+7.42%，提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)-26.08%。等于吨(dun)(dun)煤(mei)原(yuan)价(jia)(jia)918.03 元/吨(dun)(dun)，提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)月提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)-16.66%，提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)+4.47%；吨(dun)(dun)煤(mei)毛利(li)润518.39 元/吨(dun)(dun)，提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)月提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)-26.06%，提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)+14.25%。2024Q1 受安监影向到产(chan)商品(pin)销售(shou)能力提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)回落，但煤(mei)价(jia)(jia)上升补回大部分(fen)影向到。电(dian)(dian)气设备板块龙头股，2024Q1笔记本上网用电(dian)(dian)量(liang)94.70 亿kw时，提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)月提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)+14.23%，提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)+10.35%；度电(dian)(dian)人均原(yuan)价(jia)(jia)0.4714元/kw时，提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)月提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)-0.25%，提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)-3.51%。

焦煤高毛利协同电力毛利率回升，加强版煤电协同经营稳健。截止2023年底公司拥有煤炭资源量总计38.29 亿吨，其中：焦煤资源量共计9.22 亿吨，动力煤资源量共计29.07 亿吨，资源量丰富；公司目前在产煤矿15 座，总产能合计1710 万吨/年。同时，公司电力控股总装机容量达918 万千瓦、参股总装机容量达400 万千瓦，为区域内主力电厂和保供主力，利用小时数和电价相对有保障。公司煤电协同效应显现，2023 年煤炭毛利减少21.35 亿元，但电力板块增加28.66 亿元，焦煤高毛利延续叠加电煤价格中枢下移导致的燃料煤成本下降电力板块毛利率回升，公司经营稳健，业绩抗风险能力较强。

转型项目稳步推进。按照公司转型发展规划，公司致力于成为储能行业全产业链发展领先和龙头标杆企业，在已形成的全钒液流电池全产业链发展基本架构与布局基础上，正在有序推进一期3,000 吨/年高纯五氧化二钒选冶生产线和一期300MW/年新一代大容量全钒液流电池生产线建设，预计将于2024 年四季度投产；公司所属钒电池产品已完成了电堆产品定型、自主研发的BMS 程序测试和储能模块整装定型；未来，转型项目或将成为公司发展的第二增长极。

投资建议

再创新高在总(zong)部(bu)2024-2026 年EPS 分別(bie)是为0.11\0.12\0.13 元，代表(biao)总(zong)部(bu)4 月29日收市价1.36 元，2024-2026 年PE 分別(bie)是为12.1\11.5\10.3 倍(bei)。需要考虑(lv)总(zong)部(bu)焦(jiao)煤(mei)渠道高毛利润率(lv)续(xu)展，电(dian)业区域赚钱解(jie)决，再创新高在功绩(ji)仍(reng)有发展地方(fang)，随时决定“加持-A”注(zhu)资信用评级。

风险提示

经济发(fa)展经济发(fa)展增加值不抵实际(ji)问题(ti)；传统的(de)煤炭价额超实际(ji)下滑问题(ti)；安(an)全性产生(sheng)问题(ti)；魅力(li)价额问题(ti)；国(guo)家原(yuan)油现货价额振(zhen)幅产生(sheng)的(de)石化公(gong)司商业贸易问题(ti)等。