煤电(dian)同增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)牵动(dong)闭(bi)(bi)店(dian)(dian)工(gong)资(zi)水平(ping)缓解，私信储(chu)热及新(xin)(xin)开(kai)媒矿(kuang)，持(chi)续“持(chi)股(gu)(gu)”评分(fen)。新(xin)(xin)品牌(pai)正式发(fa)布2023 企业年(nian)(nian)报及2024 年(nian)(nian)三季报，2023 年(nian)(nian)新(xin)(xin)品牌(pai)达(da)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)闭(bi)(bi)店(dian)(dian)工(gong)资(zi)水平(ping)301.2 万(wan)(wan)亿，环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)-15.3%；达(da)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)归母(mu)纯(chun)(chun)纯(chun)(chun)毛(mao)利(li)22.7 万(wan)(wan)亿，环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)+18.7%。各举2023Q4 达(da)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)闭(bi)(bi)店(dian)(dian)工(gong)资(zi)水平(ping)81.4 万(wan)(wan)亿，环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)+1.8%，达(da)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)归母(mu)纯(chun)(chun)纯(chun)(chun)毛(mao)利(li)6.4 万(wan)(wan)亿，环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)+5.0%。2024Q1新(xin)(xin)品牌(pai)达(da)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)闭(bi)(bi)店(dian)(dian)工(gong)资(zi)水平(ping)73.2 万(wan)(wan)亿，环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)+3.6%，达(da)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)归母(mu)纯(chun)(chun)纯(chun)(chun)毛(mao)利(li)4.7 万(wan)(wan)亿，环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)+11.4%。遵循到2024 年(nian)(nian)迄今为(wei)止市场上煤价下(xia)滑，让我们变动(dong)2024-2025 年(nian)(nian)投(tou)资(zi)回(hui)报状态(tai)預測并新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加2026 年(nian)(nian)投(tou)资(zi)回(hui)报状态(tai)預測，不断2024-2026 年(nian)(nian)达(da)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)归母(mu)纯(chun)(chun)纯(chun)(chun)毛(mao)利(li)24.1/26.0/27.1 万(wan)(wan)亿（2024-2025 年(nian)(nian)来值一(yi)般选择(ze)25.1/26.6 万(wan)(wan)亿），环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)+6.4%/+8.0%/+4.0%；EPS 为(wei)0.11/0.12/0.12 元，对应着(zhe)在(zai)当下(xia)股(gu)(gu)值PE 为(wei)12.2/11.3/10.8 倍，新(xin)(xin)品牌(pai)煤电(dian)相(xiang)辅相(xiang)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)开(kai)状态(tai)注力闭(bi)(bi)店(dian)(dian)工(gong)资(zi)水平(ping)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)、新(xin)(xin)开(kai)媒矿(kuang)建设规划自然环(huan)(huan)境，储(chu)热转型(xing)升级(ji)开(kai)发(fa)划得(de)来希望，持(chi)续“持(chi)股(gu)(gu)”评分(fen)。

煤炭产销改善及电力业务增长带动业绩改善，海则滩建设加快煤炭业务：公司2023 年煤炭业务产销量出现增长，原煤产销量分别为1297/1299万吨，同比+17.6%/+18.0%；精煤产销量分别为329/328 万吨，同比-2.3%/-3.3%。

2024Q1 精煤(mei)销(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)量(liang)(liang)(liang)立即缓(huan)(huan)(huan)解，精煤(mei)销(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)量(liang)(liang)(liang)区(qu)分(fen)为(wei)240/237 亿(yi)立方米(mi)，相比(bi)+0.5%/-1.8%；精煤(mei)销(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)量(liang)(liang)(liang)区(qu)分(fen)为(wei)67/62 亿(yi)立方米(mi)，相比(bi)+8.6%/+7.4%。因2024 年(nian)(nian)(nian)赛第(di)年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)专(zhuan)业(ye)(ye)领(ling)域的煤(mei)价上(shang)行，2024Q1 有(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)企(qi)(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)山西煤(mei)炭国(guo)际业(ye)(ye)务(wu)流程量(liang)(liang)(liang)纯利(li)为(wei)12.3 6亿(yi)人(ren)民币，相比(bi)-27.4%。有(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)企(qi)(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)隶属关系安徽亿(yi)华海则(ze)滩煤(mei)矿业(ye)(ye)本次目处在安徽省榆横二矿，煤(mei)种重(zhong)点(dian)(dian)为(wei)优(you)秀医药化工(gong)用(yong)煤(mei)及推(tui)(tui)动力(li)煤(mei)，资源(yuan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)储(chu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)11.45 亿(yi)立方米(mi)，峰(feng)值发(fa)烧量(liang)(liang)(liang)6500 大卡综上(shang)所述。该本次目不断(duan)2026年(nian)(nian)(nian)三第(di)年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)配备出(chu)煤(mei)先(xian)决条件，2027 年(nian)(nian)(nian)达(da)产。按照有(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)企(qi)(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)推(tui)(tui)算出(chu)，按2023 年(nian)(nian)(nian)专(zhuan)业(ye)(ye)领(ling)域的峰(feng)值煤(mei)价首次推(tui)(tui)算出(chu)可(ke)确保年(nian)(nian)(nian)开店创收约90 6亿(yi)人(ren)民币、纯店铺生意利(li)润润约44 6亿(yi)人(ren)民币。功率(lv)(lv)国(guo)际业(ye)(ye)务(wu)流程量(liang)(liang)(liang)：2023 年(nian)(nian)(nian)功率(lv)(lv)国(guo)际业(ye)(ye)务(wu)流程量(liang)(liang)(liang)量(liang)(liang)(liang)升(sheng)本减纯利(li)强(qiang)势缓(huan)(huan)(huan)解，2024Q1 发(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)剩余(yu)(yu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)寿命立即高增。2023 年(nian)(nian)(nian)有(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)企(qi)(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)达(da)成丹阳中鑫(xin)华海管理权(quan)，新建一(yi)(yi)键(jian)电(dian)(dian)(dian)脑一(yi)(yi)键(jian)装机发(fa)热(re)量(liang)(liang)(liang)20 众(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)多(duo)瓦，有(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)企(qi)(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)用(yong)用(yong)功率(lv)(lv)控股企(qi)(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)总(zong)一(yi)(yi)键(jian)电(dian)(dian)(dian)脑一(yi)(yi)键(jian)装机发(fa)热(re)量(liang)(liang)(liang)达(da)标918 众(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)多(duo)瓦、注资总(zong)一(yi)(yi)键(jian)电(dian)(dian)(dian)脑一(yi)(yi)键(jian)装机发(fa)热(re)量(liang)(liang)(liang)达(da)标400 众(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)多(duo)瓦。2023 年(nian)(nian)(nian)有(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)企(qi)(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)开卖电(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)剩余(yu)(yu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)寿命区(qu)分(fen)为(wei)373.5/353.9 亿(yi)kW时(shi)，相比(bi)+4.2%/+4.1%，2023 年(nian)(nian)(nian)专(zhuan)业(ye)(ye)领(ling)域的煤(mei)价上(shang)行会使有(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)企(qi)(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)功率(lv)(lv)成本低(di)相比(bi)-11.2%，纯通(tong)货膨胀率(lv)(lv)不断(duan)增加17.6 个十分(fen)之一(yi)(yi)至10.7%，创收工(gong)作(zuo)能(neng)力(li)升(sheng)幅缓(huan)(huan)(huan)解。2024Q1有(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)企(qi)(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)开卖电(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)剩余(yu)(yu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)寿命区(qu)分(fen)为(wei)100.0/94.7 亿(yi)kW时(shi)，相比(bi)+14.2%/14.2%，我(wo)国(guo)不断(duan)有(you)(you)限(xian)(xian)企(qi)(qi)(qi)业(ye)(ye)2024Q1 业(ye)(ye)绩考核相比(bi)缓(huan)(huan)(huan)解重(zhong)点(dian)(dian)发(fa)源(yuan)开卖电(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)剩余(yu)(yu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)寿命强(qiang)势加快。

全钒液流电池项目加速落地，能源转型可期

加快和提(ti)升(sheng)格局(ju)全(quan)钒(fan)液流(liu)電池全(quan)财(cai)产(chan)链，局(ju)限(xian)平台存储(chu)改(gai)革创新加快和提(ti)升(sheng)离地(di)。（1）全(quan)钒(fan)液流(liu)電池工(gong)程(cheng)工(gong)程(cheng)项目制(zhi)作(zuo)(zuo)：局(ju)限(xian)平台单位隶(li)属张(zhang)家港德泰(tai)存储(chu)转(zhuan)备局(ju)限(xian)局(ju)限(xian)平台1,000MW 全(quan)钒(fan)液流(liu)電池存储(chu)转(zhuan)备制(zhi)作(zuo)(zuo)集地(di)（1期300MW）己经2023 年6 月底(di)破土动工(gong)制(zhi)作(zuo)(zuo)，不断2024 年四(si)时度投入(ru)使用，不断1期工(gong)程(cheng)工(gong)程(cheng)项目达产(chan)妇在产(chan)后占(zhan)我国的贸易市场市占(zhan)率(lv)10%。（2）钒(fan)矿选冶(ye)产(chan)量(liang)线(xian)制(zhi)作(zuo)(zuo)：

总(zong)部单位隶(li)属敦煌市(shi)汇(hui)宏煤业规(gui)划(hua)设计(ji)现(xian)(xian)有总(zong)部6000 吨/年高纯五空气防(fang)氧化(hua)(hua)(hua)物(wu)二钒(fan)选冶(ye)加工(gong)线（期3000 吨/年）已经(jing)在2023 年6 月底进行开(kai)工(gong)施工(gong)，预(yu)期2024 年春天(tian)度开(kai)工(gong)。截止(zhi)日现(xian)(xian)有，该产线是国产单条(tiao)建设规(gui)模比较大、一(yi)键化(hua)(hua)(hua)数量(liang)最(zui)低(di)、室(shi)内(nei)环(huan)(huan)境(jing)最(zui)亲善的石煤提钒(fan)加工(gong)线，达生完孩子后将占国产石煤提钒(fan)20%两边市(shi)厂所有权。同样总(zong)部按照债(zhai)权收购(gou)认定了湖北省石台县龙(long)岭钒(fan)矿(kuang)开(kai)采权，加入了平均值品(pin)味(wei)0.93%、评估要确(que)认134.74万吨左右级(ji)的五空气防(fang)氧化(hua)(hua)(hua)物(wu)二钒(fan)环(huan)(huan)境(jing)教育资(zi)源(yuan)量(liang)，现(xian)(xian)有总(zong)部五空气防(fang)氧化(hua)(hua)(hua)物(wu)二钒(fan)环(huan)(huan)境(jing)教育资(zi)源(yuan)量(liang)做(zuo)到158.89 万吨左右级(ji)。

风险提示：煤价下跌超预期；煤炭产量不及预期；储能转型不及预期。